Ban-Risk Changelog

This page is the receipt. Every time a score moves on the Ban-Risk Index, the change is logged here with the date, the old score, the new score, and the reason. The log is append-only — earlier entries are never edited, only added to.

The point of the log is accountability. The Index publishes editorial estimation, and the only way for editorial estimation to earn trust is for every change to be visible.

Reading the log

Each entry takes the form:

YYYY-MM-DD · entry slug — old score → new score One-sentence reason. Linked primary source if the change tracks a federal action.

The most recent entries are at the top. The original scoring of an entry is logged when the entry is first published; subsequent revisions are logged as they happen.

Log

2026-05-27 · Inaugural Index launch

The Ban-Risk Index launches with six pilot entries. No score changes recorded yet — every score is an initial scoring decision, not a revision.

The six pilots:

• Tikka T3x Compact Tactical Rifle — initial scoring: Low (1/15)
• Bergara B14 HMR — initial scoring: Low (1/15)
• Ruger 10/22 (standard) — initial scoring: Low (3/15)
• SKS — Norinco commercial variants — initial scoring: High (9/15)
• Sterling Arms R9 MK1 — initial scoring: Already Gone (13/15)
• Ruger Mini-14 (and variants) — initial scoring: Already Gone (14/15)

Methodology and source trail published at /ban-risk/methodology/ and /ban-risk/sources/ respectively.

Anchor events to watch

The Index will log score changes against these anchor events when they happen. We are publishing the list here so the reader knows what we are watching for:

• Supreme Court of Canada — CCFR appeal. Leave was granted in March 2026. Outcome pending. A ruling in favour of the appellants would reverse the OIC pathway and likely trigger rescoring across every Already Gone entry that was prohibited by OIC rather than by FRT determination.
• Next OIC expansion. SOR/2020-96, SOR/2024-248, and SOR/2025-86 form a cadence of roughly one expansion every nine to fifteen months. Any future expansion will trigger rescoring of every affected entry within 48 hours.
• FRT reclassification of an existing Non-restricted entry. The Sterling R9 MK1 case (July 2025) demonstrated that administrative reclassification can move a rifle without an OIC. Any subsequent reclassification with similar pathway will be flagged here and the affected entry rescored.
• Amnesty changes. The current amnesty (SOR/2025-208) extends through October 30, 2026. Extension, expiry, or modification of that amnesty changes what Already Gone entries mean for current owners and is logged here.
• Compensation program changes. Adjustments to the Assault-Style Firearms Compensation Program terms ($400–$700 per firearm, $550 per lower receiver as of January 17, 2026) do not change a score but do change the practical advice on affected entries.

Format of future entries

When the first score change happens, the entry below this section will look something like this:

2026-XX-XX · sks-norinco-commercial — High → Already Gone The SOR amendment of [date] named the Norinco commercial SKS family. Score moved from rubric High (9/15) to Already Gone (12/15+) on the SOR naming criterion. Source: [Canada Gazette URL].

Every change is one paragraph. No editorial elaboration beyond the one-sentence reason. Elaboration belongs in the entry's Verdict long section, not in the log.

Subscribe to score-change alerts

The Holdover Dispatch sends a brief whenever a score moves on the Index. One email per change, no chatter, no aggregation. Subscribe to the Dispatch.

If you want alerts for a single entry rather than the whole Index, the Watch button on that entry's page sends an email only when that specific entry's score changes.