Ban-Risk Methodology

The Ban-Risk Index is a working estimate of how exposed each Canadian-market rifle is to the next round of prohibitions. It is editorial estimation, sourced and transparent. It is not legal advice and it is not the Firearms Reference Table. This page explains how the score is calculated, what the bands mean, who decides, and how to dispute a score.

What the Index is

A scored database of rifles available on the Canadian market, with one permanent URL per make-model-variant. Each entry carries a published score, a verdict in Holdover voice, a five-dimension rubric breakdown, primary sources, and the date of the most recent scoring decision. The Index is updated as the law moves and as we add new entries.

What the Index is not

It is not Armalytics. Armalytics tells you what is prohibited under the current Firearms Reference Table. The Ban-Risk Index says what we estimate is likely to become prohibited, and why. The two services answer different questions; this one is editorial, that one is administrative.

It is not legal advice. The classification field on every entry reflects current RCMP FRT status as of the entry's last-scored date. For any transfer, surrender, deactivation, or transport question, consult primary RCMP and Public Safety Canada sources and, where appropriate, a Canadian firearms lawyer.

It is not a buyer's guide. The Best Canadian Non-Restricted Rifle Guide is a separate product. The Index cross-links to it.

The rubric

Five dimensions. Each scored 0 to 3. Total 0 to 15. The four published bands are computed from the total.

Dimension 1 — Action class

How much does the rifle's action place it inside the SOR criteria's logic?

Dimension 2 — Calibre

How much does the rifle's calibre intersect with the SOR's named categories?

Shotgun-aware reading (added 2026-05-27 with the shotgun-class expansion). The rubric was written rifle-first. For shotgun entries — the LA-K12 Puma, Hunt Group FD12, Derya MK10, and the rest of the bullpup shotgun segment named in SOR/2025-86 — the calibre dimension reads as follows:

The action-class dimension for shotguns reads the same as for rifles — bolt-action / break / single-shot = 0, lever / pump = 1, semi-auto = 3 (shotguns are mechanically centrefire-class). A semi-auto sporting shotgun like the Beretta A400 with no SOR-flag features therefore scores 3+1+0+0+0 = 4/15 by strict rubric reading — the first Medium-band entry on the dataset. The verdict on that entry explains what "Medium" means in that context (structurally in the conversation per the rubric's logic; not "imminent ban").

A v1.1 rubric revision may add an explicit "platform type" column to distinguish rifle, shotgun, and pistol-caliber-carbine readings, but for v1 launch the calibre dimension is shotgun-aware in practice and rifle-aware in description, with the gauge reading noted on each shotgun entry's scoring rationale.

Dimension 3 — Feature set

How many SOR-flag features does the rifle carry? The flag features are: pistol grip, flash hider, threaded muzzle on a banned-class platform, magazine capacity exceeding 5 (centrefire) or 10 (rimfire).

Important: the flag features score only on banned-class platforms. A threaded muzzle on a bolt-action does not trigger this dimension — it is a hunting accessory, not an SOR criterion. The rubric is honest about what appearance means versus what classification logic reaches.

Dimension 4 — Lineage

How closely is the rifle related to a firearm that has already been prohibited?

Dimension 5 — Policy momentum

How much federal or advocacy attention is the platform receiving?

Score bands

Editorial override

The editor may override the rubric's published band when the rubric total does not capture a circumstance the rubric was not built for — an FRT reclassification pending review, a courtroom outcome that changes the underlying classification, a regulator's explicit announcement of upcoming action.

When overridden, the entry is flagged on the record: a visible badge on the score card, an editorial_override: true flag in the underlying data, and a verdict that opens with the words "Holdover overrides this one because…". The reasoning is the entry. No silent overrides.

For the v1 launch, no entry uses the editorial override. Every published score reflects the rubric total. We expect override use to be rare and visible.

Sources

Every entry carries at least one primary source from RCMP, Public Safety Canada, Canada Gazette, Justice Canada, or the Canadian Firearms Program. Most entries carry two or more, with at least one government-published reference and one trade-press or advocacy reference for context.

The full source trail used across the Index — and what each source is good for — is on the Sources page.

How we score

One reviewer at v1 launch: Steve Coppola, editor of Holdover. Each entry is researched against the rubric, scored across the five dimensions, and posted with the rubric total computed. Verdicts are written in Holdover voice — dry, sourced, calm, Canadian, slightly literary. Every score is reviewed against the rubric before publish.

We will add an outside reviewer as the rubric stabilizes. The first version of a public scoring board will be listed here when that step is taken.

How we update

The Index is updated whenever the law moves or new entries are added.

• Weekly: review of CGN, GunPost, advocacy newsletters, the Canada Gazette, and Public Safety announcements for any score-changing event. A Dispatch is sent only when something moves.
• Monthly: addition of new entries based on the most-requested searches that returned no match.
• On policy event — Order in Council, SOR amendment, amnesty extension — all affected entries are rescored within 48 hours. A Dispatch goes out within 72 hours.

Every score change is logged on the Changelog.

The Medium-gap finding

A note worth surfacing here. As of 2026-05-27, the Medium band (rubric totals 4–7) has been hollowed out by the December 2024 (SOR/2024-248, 324 firearms) and March 2025 (SOR/2025-86, 179 firearms) expansions. Rifles that would have scored Medium in 2020 — most PCC platforms, most AR-styled rimfires, the Mini-14 family — have been pulled up into Already Gone. Rifles that would have scored Medium in 2026 — semi-auto centrefires with mixed lineage and modest policy attention — are now in the conversation hard enough to score High.

The Medium band is the band of rifles being actively considered for prohibition. As Canadian firearms policy moves toward broader prohibition lists, that conversational space gets smaller. The Index will keep scoring honestly to the rubric as long as the rubric stays defensible. If the Medium band stays empty for an extended stretch, the rubric itself needs revision — not the entries.

How to dispute a score

Spotted an error, a fact that is out of date, or a reading you think is wrong? Email the editor at [email protected] with the entry slug in the subject line. We answer every dispute. If the score moves, the change is logged on the Changelog with a reason.

If your dispute is about an FRT classification rather than a Holdover score, the right pathway is the RCMP Canadian Firearms Program directly — not us. We can read the regulation; we cannot reclassify the firearm.

Safety note

The Ban-Risk Index is editorial estimation, not legal advice or a substitute for current official guidance. The classification field reflects current RCMP FRT status as of the last-scored date. For any transfer, surrender, deactivation, or transport question, consult primary RCMP and Public Safety Canada sources and, where appropriate, a Canadian firearms lawyer.